Six organizations issue forecasts. Remaining very mild. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS As we emphasize on the blog, ENSO may tilt the odds toward one outcome or the other, but the forecast is always probabilistic. This fits the long term trend across our area during a La Nia phase of slightly above normal temperatures during the . London and other areas in the south of England will surpass 20C higher than Athens, which is predicted to peak at 20C over the weekend. The Met Office's three-month outlook, for example, suggests this winter is half as likely as usual to be classified as wet. The February snow depth forecast shows continued increased snowfall potential over the northwestern United States and expanding over western and southern Canada. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast. To determine this signal, I first calculated the average of the December-January Southwest U.S. precipitation across all 30 ensemble members for each La Nia. While AccuWeather forecasts that snowfall will be suppressed, the company does not necessarily expect overall precipitation to be below normal as well, with milder temperatures leading to several all-rain events this winter. The average seasonal forecast for the United States and Canada shows a typical La Nina snowfall pattern. Since the latest forecast data was released in mid-late November, we now also have the March data included, so we can look at some early Spring snowfall potential. It's important to keep in mind that not every location in the Southwest has been wetter than normal lately. The February snowfall forecast shows snowfall potential remaining over the northern parts of the United States. The start of this period is expected to be characterised by winds from the north bringing cold conditions to most areas with widespread frost and ice. That's still down 45% from a year earlier, however. A weak onshore flow should keep it above 40 here. Even modest variations could tip the scale toward wetter or drier conditions in a particular winter. For entertainment purposes, we also summarize the outlooks from the Farmers Almanac and its rival, the Old Farmers almanac but meteorologists put little stock in those predictions. Official websites use .gov To analyze the effect of different sea surface temperature patterns on early-winter precipitation in the Southwest during La Nia, I first defined two groups: the wettest 20% and driest 20% of simulations. Again, there is an expectation that January and February will see more of an influence from the Atlantic, with the ECMWF maps indicating near-average precipitation levels for most of the UK. (NOAA Climate.gov, using NWS CPC data) Download Image Temperature Long-range weather forecasting is not easy, and there are a lot of factors that impact seasonal climate. Submitted by emily.becker on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 17:12, In reply to sampling differences by John N-G. That's a good question! AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting that 40 to 50 inches will accumulate in the city, around the average snowfall amount of 49.2 inches. Finally, the persistently positive SOI and MEI is an interesting observation. Any time. Severe Weather Europe 2023, Also, we will keep you updated on other developing weather trends, so bookmark our page. The next update will be available November 17. Understanding what teleconnection patterns we can and cannot predict on these seasonal time scales remains a big research topic. Snowfall rates may reach 1"/hr at times, and travel will likely . AccuWeather forecasters are predicting a more active severe thunderstorm season in the southeastern states during the winter months because of warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures. That can be interpreted as a potential route of winter cold air outbreaks down from the Midwest to the south, creating occasional snow events. It was developed by the United Kingdom Met Office, which is where the initials UKMO come from. We cannot rule out the possibility that the model is missing some sort of predictable connection between a particular flavor of La Nia sea surface temperatures and Southwest precipitation. When we plug those values in, we get (0.725)2/(0.194)2 = 14, which is why I conclude that chaotic weather variations are about 14 times more important than the variations caused by sea surface temperature variations for December-January Southwest U.S. precipitation during La Nia events. Thanks for doing those simulations, and for sharing the results here. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from the NOAA GFDL SPEAR climate model. For this analysis, I am using simulations of monthly climate from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model called SPEAR, the same model that contributes seasonal forecasts to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), but here the experiment is designed to analyze the climate effects of the observed sea surface temperature evolution from 1951-2020 (4). I confirm from a regional point of view here in Jordan we had terribly dry December-January and the start of February was highlight with torrential rains . Thanks for raising some good points! Comments must be on-topic; free of profanity, name-calling, or ad-hominem attacks; and cannot repeat misinformation about climate that has been widely debunked by authoritative sources. However, December may put the brakes on this, with a strong signal for this month to be much cooler than average. Images by NOAA Physical Science Laboratory. Based on the Farmer's Almanac winter 2022-2023 predictions for the upcoming chilly season, the report shows that . Their precip map show wetter that normal conditions for California during these types of events. This winter's total is a record for Bellemont but in 1948-49 there was 153.9 inches at the airport ..still have time to top that record since average March snowfall is about 15 inches, Submitted by Craig T on Fri, 03/03/2023 - 14:34. The southern United States is forecast to have a drier-than-normal winter season. The southern half of the country has a higher probability of warmer than normal weather. I'm pleased you're joining us today to discuss the Southwest Gas Holdings fourth quarter and year-end results. January snowfall forecast shows a similar pattern, with more snowfall over much of southern Canada and the northern half of the United States. So, next, we want to know if there are any consistent differences in the sea surface temperature pattern between La Nias that lead to wet versus dry early winters in the Southwest. A larger deficit can be seen over northern Europe and the Alps. Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. In the West, the drought persists. These variations include the magnitude and location of the strongest tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaliesa particular flavor of La Nia. Here is what the Met Office is predicting for the coming weeks. By that standing (since 1893), the meteorological winter of 2022-23 was the wettest in Minnesota. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Fri, 02/24/2023 - 16:25, In reply to Stratospheric warming due to Tonga volcano by Ed Ratledge. On average across the UK, there are only 15.6 days a year when snow is on the ground, though this rises to 26.2 days for Scotland alone. The data shows that the La Nina jet stream pattern also changes the snowfall patterns over North America as the pressure systems take a different path, along with the cold air. In mid-January, the Farmers Almanac says, temperatures could drop as low as 40 degrees below zero in parts of the region. Below normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle. The pattern seems to be under the influence of a high-pressure system, as the forecast does not permit a lot of large-scale snowfall scenarios and snow accumulation. This area is still feeling theeffects of the past 3 VERY Dry Winters. Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the Western U.S and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter, said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAAs Climate Prediction Center. below-average surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, signal relative to the noise of random weather variability, Stratospheric warming due to Tonga volcano, https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winte, Southeast Colorado and Northeast New Mexico. Im basically doing a signal versus noise calculation. In the Southeast, the Farmers Almanacs expected East Coast storms are more likely to bring rain, although chilly conditions that enter the region in January could cause wintry precipitation there, as well. (NOAA Climate.gov, based on NWS CPC data). With CAGRs of 17.4% and 12.7%, respectively, over the past 10 years. But if these big picture findings hold up to further scrutiny, then it means that the typical or averaged La Nia precipitation pattern still may be the most reliable guide for seasonal predictions of Southwest precipitation in early winter, but we may have to rely on subseasonal and weather forecasts rather than seasonal outlooks to anticipate the sort of soaking that occurred in December and January of this winter. Hello climate.gov administrator, You always provide in-depth analysis and understanding. Rain for many on Saturday but becoming warm in south-east England. More. Europe is not known to have any specific/direct influences, as it is too far from the source regions. You can see that jet stream redirection in the image below. travelling for the east to the west) are cold because they arrive from the cold continental interior of mainland Europe. Hourly. The precipitation anomalies are divided into 10 evenly spaced bins, and the number of La Nia events is totaled for each bin. The lowest temperatures are expected in the Ohio Valley into the Upper Midwest, which are forecast to be 1 to 3 degrees below normal. A .gov If we were to zoom into the tropical region, where sea surface temperatures have the greatest global climate impact, we would see some sea surface temperature differences of up to 0.2 C in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. Karen S. Haller. The signal of interest is Southwest U.S. precipitation variations due to the sea surface temperature variations during all La Nias. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 08:32, Tucson Intl Airport had 1.0 inches of snow today (March 2) bringing season total to 1.5 inches. You can see a strong snowfall anomaly over the Midwest and the Great Lakes, expanding over the northeastern United States. The Farmers' Almanac just released its winter 2022 extended forecast report, and for the most part, winter will be pretty chilly for all of the country, but with some major fluctuations in. NOAA forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continue to monitor extreme, ongoing drought conditions that have persisted in the Western U.S. since late 2020, as well as parts of the central U.S. where historic low-water conditions are currently present. As we discussed in this post, La Nina typically causes a reduction rather than increase in western U.S. atmospheric river activity. Chris Bilbrey, a forecaster with the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, digs a pit with Rebecca Hodgetts, southern mountains lead . How will the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption play into the forecast? Northerly winds (i.e. How harsh will winter be? From the second half of next week onwards, milder conditions seem likely to push erratically north, with spells of rain and snow likely at times - which could be disruptive in places, at least at first. This is mainly a result of warmer-than-normal temperatures expected in late Winter by UKMO in the south/southwest. This does not mean there will be no snow, but it indicates less snowfall than normal. The largest departures were in Wisconsin. Due to arctic amplification (or not) the jet steam has been "wavy" this winter bringing colder than average temperatures to the SW (I live in Tucson) and unusual warmth to the east. AccuWeathers official 2022-2023 U.S. winter forecast is rather bleak for snow lovers. TUCSON, Ariz. (KGUN) March marches in like a lion! Want to know how your actions can help make a difference for our planet? Drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast. There certainly other teleconnection patterns that influence western U.S. precipitation, but most of them have little to no connection with sea surface temperatures.