Jury Duty: Who Gets Called, And Who Actually Serves | WUNC Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy 240 views MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 . On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries climate policies and whether there are other factors that are more important. The team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power, and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. Happy holidays! r/fivethirtyeight. Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNNs new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling. Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot measures around the country. Accuracy is not guaranteed. They also assess whether narratives from the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia hold up in light of new data, and debate the hottest legislative topic in Washington: permanent Daylight Saving Time. Each week, host Jody Avirgan brings you stories and interviews about how data is changing our lives. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative priorities passed. Hosts of the British Talking Politics podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the Conservative Party have soured on Johnson in a way that Republicans never soured on President Trump, despite his numerous scandals. The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary. . The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their Model Talk hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. Video What to do about George Santos | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast Dec. 7, 2017 | Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS 03 / Black Representation In North Carolina The debate over how districts should be drawn to ensure that minority voters are represented in Congress. The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have moved toward a nationalist, populist agenda. The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms. apache saddles amarillo texas shockwave treatment for gallstones in the philippines price The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19 The Ticket - A Presidential Podcast comes from the Texas Tribune. March 1, 2023 6:30am by Barry Ritholtz. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls. Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what theyve learned from this election so far. The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. 266, the . In her new book How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them, Barbara F Walter writes we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe. They also ask whether a recent Gallup poll reporting that a record number of Americans are thriving is a good or bad use of polling. The podcast crew discusses what Rep. Liz Cheney might do next with her message and what an independent bid for president might entail. Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works. They also consider how Rep. George Santoss scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. The majority of the coverage did not show signs of bias, such as articles on immigration, midterm elections and the Jan. 6 hearings. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what hes learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. Politics Podcast: Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless' During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. Dive in and Share your insights! Saturday, February 25, 2023. What does it take to make democracy work? Tune in on your preferred podcast platform! The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out. He rejected the presidents requests and has consistently spoken out against conspiracy theories surrounding the election. American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted. Tucker Carlson Has Exclusive Access To Jan. 6th Security Tapes. The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. The crew previews Californias primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. The State Of The Polls, 2016. From host Jody Avirgan (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums, pitches, pools and slopes that shed a light on the ups and downs of being human. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices. The crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santoss career might unfold. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Bidens first real State of the Union speech. FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast | Free Listening on Podbean App FiveThirtyEight Politics https://feeds.megaphone.fm/ESP8794877317 Follow Share 13.5k Followers 200 Episodes Category: Politics Last Update: 2023-02-21 Claim Ownership Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next months midterms. Good Sport on Apple Podcasts How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling.". 2,. During a punchy episode of FiveThirtyEight's now daily politics podcast on Wednesday, Silver pushed back forcefully on anyone out there accusing him or his website of getting the 2020 election. In his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues that many of the fissures that the country is facing today politically, economically, culturally have to do with the Baby Boomers getting old. ( Businessweek) Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford on Stitcher They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebounded abroad is a good or bad use of polling. They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today. At the beginning of the millennium, about two-thirds of Americans opposed same-sex marriage, and a third supported it. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data.". Tester faces a tough bid, but don't sleep on Brown being the weaker of the two. But that doesnt stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didnt make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle. All. They also review Democrats agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the states likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. FiveThirtyEight Politics | Podcast on Spotify They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska. The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the countrys broader political environment in a Midterm election year. The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." By our estimates, the Democrat is on track to win by 45 points, compared to 30 points in '22 and 36 points in '20. twitter. FiveThirtyEight Politics The Gerrymandering Project: California . The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texass 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texass Rio Grande Valley. We look at two of this weeks biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administrations decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBSs recent documentary series The Black Church.". Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches. The data behind that evolution is striking. New rules for the baseball season, Richard Belzer dies and more prison for Harvey Weinstein and R. Kelly | Bonus sports & entertainment episode. 450 episodes. Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict. Staff writer at The Atlantic Elaine Godfrey and political science professor Danny Hayes discuss the role local news plays in society and what happens when it erodes. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast | Free Listening on Podbean App Local news is disappearing across the country. The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." police- settlements. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications. Upload your Podcast as an audio or video file to Type Studio in our menu. Thats Changing. As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom. Why Valentina Shevchenko Is A Huge Favorite And Jon Jones Isn't At By May 21, 2021 0 . Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling. This Day In Esoteric Political History Radiotopia Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Courts recent abortion decision. Maybe its time to get rid of election polls. The Rules of the Game podcast discusses and compares democratic institutions from around the world. Serial's new true-crime podcast, The Coldest Case in Laramie, revisits a 1985 murder. Since then, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states. The question is whether Mississippis law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6. We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Our Data | FiveThirtyEight The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administrations handling of the end of the war. The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. Transcripts by Erin Wade. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. Why Valentina Shevchenko Is A Huge Favorite And Jon Jones Isn't At UFC 285,A pair of championships are on the line at UFC 285 in Las Vegas Saturday night, and both title bouts offer a study in contrasts. American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday's Vote l FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts 0:00:00 gold rush supreme second chance winners. The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill. It helps our wrinkle, which helps other discover the shop or just tell them on about this series, we'll be . The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures. As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding. Podcast Transcription Generator- Transcribe Online | Type Studio Tucker Carlson Has Exclusive Access To Jan. 6th Security Tapes : The In this installment, civil and environmental engineer Daniel Cohan joins FiveThirtyEight's Sarah Frostenson, Maggie Koerth and Galen Druke to discuss why the blackouts occurred, where responsibility lies and how politics responds to these kinds of crises. They also look at how the Democratic Party's effort to rearrange its presidential primary calendar is going, and ask whether a survey of Republican National Committee members was a good or bad use of polling. The idea of the celebrity politician isnt going away just because former President Trump is out of office. Google Podcasts - FiveThirtyEight Politic Were still waiting to find out what the deal is, but this focus on slow moving objects in U.S. airspace was kicked off by a Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. shot down earlier this month. The Sporkful production team includes Dan Pashman, Emma Morgenstern, Andres O'Hara, Tracey Samuelson, and Jared O'Connell. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." We speak with journalist Sasha Issenberg about how that happened. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the most prominent of which may be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by more than half. The Supreme Court Not So Much. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms. Lastly, they ask whether a recent survey of Americans attitudes about secession is a good or bad use of polling. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics. Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent. They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump. FiveThirtyEight Media Bias | AllSides Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Politics Podcast: Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless', Politics Podcast: How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear, Politics Podcast: Some Republicans Are Souring On Aid To Ukraine. The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. The crew talks about why President Biden's approval is underwater, what the consequences are for Democrats and what they can do about it. The crew runs down a list of theories in a game of Buy, Sell, or Hold to discuss what evidence, if any, supports some of these arguments.